On the Edge - by Nate Silver (Hardcover)

About the Book

"From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk-and the players raising the stakes In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape-and dominate-so much of modern life. These professional risk takers-poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors-can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century. By embedding within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset-including the flaws in their thinking-is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale. Taking us behind-the-scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply-reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of powerbrokers and risk takers"--

Book Synopsis

The Instant New York Times Bestseller

"Engaging and entertaining... a glimpse of the economy of the future." --Tim Wu, New York Times Book Review

From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk--and the players raising the stakes

In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "the River," the community of like-minded people whose mastery of risk allows them to shape--and dominate--so much of modern life.

These professional risk-takers--poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors--can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.

Most of us don't have traits commonly found in the River: high tolerance for risk, appreciation of uncertainty, affinity for numbers--paired with an instinctive distrust of conventional wisdom and a competitive drive so intense it can border on irrational. For those in the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it. People in the River have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset--and the flaws in their thinking-- is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today.

Taking us behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms, and from the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of power bro­kers and risk-takers.

Review Quotes

"Our recent politics have been seen as a conflict between coastal elites and Middle Americans. It is a divide, roughly, between the rich and the not-so-rich, the influential and the ignored. Mr. Silver focuses on a different fault line, the one between the risk-takers and the risk-averse . . . savvy observations about the business and culture of gambling." --Eric Felten, Wall Street Journal

"Engaging and entertaining . . . Silver describes how the decision-making methods of the professional gambler have spread to encompass a wide swath of human activities, from cryptocurrency investment to the pursuit of a more ethical life. He offers readers an interview-driven tour of the parts of America where the outlooks and incomes depend on sophisticated forms of risk-taking. The result is a glimpse of the economy of the future." --Tim Wu, New York Times Book Review

"Engrossing . . . a meditation on risk, a study of those most comfortable taking it and an invitation for the rest of us to think about what it means that so much more of our lives now seems to hang on it." --David Wallace-Wells, New York Times

"Silver had initially intended to write mostly about gambling but ultimately widened his scope as he became convinced that gambling might provide a framework for understanding risk takers in other fields. The result is a book that's more interesting--Silver managed to land an interview with Bankman-Fried shortly before his arrest in the Bahamas--and more subversive."--Max Chafkin, Bloomberg Businessweek

"Remember Moneyball? . . . What do hedge fund managers, poker players and the scientist behind the mRNA vaccine have in common? Nate Silver argues that they all exist in what he calls "the River"-a community of like-minded power brokers taking quantitative risks." --NPR, Book of the Day

"Endlessly informative and fascinating, On The Edge is an indispensable guide to identifying the most feasible options in a messy, hypercompetitive world of uncertainty and risk." --Glenn C. Altschuler, Pittsburgh Post Gazette

"A compelling read... Silver covers a lot of ground in this likeable, insightful read, investigating risk-taking ability and how it applies to blue-sky investing. It's worth the price of the tour."--Alan Livsey, Financial Times

"Reminded me of The Adventures of Augie March, Saul Bellow's breakthrough picaresque, in its irrepressible joy, unfailing wisdom and moral assuredness." --Gary Sernovitz, Bloomberg Weekend Edition

"Silver's work stands out for its focus on high-stakes domains . . . a nuanced perspective on modern risk-taking . . . provides valuable insights into the evolving landscapes of technology, finance, and societal change, making it a significant contribution to the field." --Dov Greenbaum, Science

"Takes a hard look at some of our best and brightest, and some of our not so bright . . Poker can be a very insightful way to see who someone is . . ." --Megyn Kelly

"Remarkably curious." --KQED

"More nuanced than Moneyball, eschewing the worship of data geeks and their denigration of human cognition . . . accomplishes a rare feat in the age of the internet--telling a contemporary, fresh, and fascinating story. He introduces readers to some of the best gamblers in the world, breaks down an allegation of poker cheating with layers of intrigue, and tells the story of his foray into sports betting." --Ben Christenson, The Federalist

"Silver compellingly theorizes that humans are in general too risk averse... a thought-provoking interdisciplinary book which covers a host of timely topics from artificial intelligence, political theory and what happens when risk takers go too far."--Krysta Fauria, AP

"Masterly . . . If you --like me--find gambling irresistible . . . [A] highly readable and engaging tour." --Sam Freedman, The Times (UK)

"Nate Silver is that very rare thing, a celebrity statistician . . . in a class of his own . . . As a guide to our dystopian future, in which everyone is busy updating their priors and sizing their bets, On the Edge is indispensable." --Ian Sansom, Telegraph (UK)

"A clever look into a unique realm. An enlightening study of the people who play the game of risk and win." --Kirkus Reviews (starred)

"Colorful and enlightening"--Publishers Weekly

About the Author

Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise. He writes the Substack "Silver Bulletin."